Barring something unforeseen, if Bernie is unable to win the Michigan primary tomorrow, his path to the nomination is, for all effective purposes, over. The primary map for the rest of March and beyond isn’t Bernie friendly. That reality should compel some rethinking on Bernie’s part as to his next move. I don’t think a reprise of 2016 makes any sense. In politics there is a place for political realism.

The application of a popular front strategy isn’t reducible to simply a commitment to beat Trump. That’s a good start, but not enough. It also entails a readiness to build an extensive set of political and social alliances that while not precluding struggle within the front/coalition, accents broad people’s unity against Trump in the first place. And certainly not a war against the “Democratic Party establishment” (reminds me of the “sixties”).

I can hear a Bernie supporter saying, “But they attack us.” I have no doubt about that, but the left, again because of the existential stakes of this election, should act like the grown up in the room. So far neither Bernie nor many of his supporters have conducted themselves in that manner. It’s not to late. Much hangs on it, including the success of Bernie’s campaign for the Democratic Party nomination.

First of all, Joe Biden was never my first choice; Elizabeth Warren was. But I don’t subscribe to the view that he can’t beat Trump. This claim rests more on ideological disposition and defeatism than facts on the ground. Indeed, facts on the ground, namely the recent primaries, tell a very different story. Turnout for Biden has been higher than expected, while Bernie voters have under performed.

Moreover, the coalition supporting Biden is more expansive than the coalition supporting Bernie. A moment like this begs for sober calculation, not the rage of a lover spurned and wishful thinking.

Lenin, yes the guy who lead the Russian revolution a century ago, once wrote that “defeated armies learn well.” Perhaps he’s right about armies, but I’m reluctant to think his observation applies to political and social movements as well. Too many of the latter, instead of learning from defeat, double down on their erroneous — magical — thinking. We see it today.

I’ve heard in recent days that African American voters who support Biden and not Bernie, are “pragmatic” and in the South, even “conservative.” Fear is what motivated them. This really misses the mark. First of all, who isn’t fearful of a second Trump term? But more to the point, Black voters are the most politically astute and strategically sophisticated component of the electorate. This has been the case for a long time. And their votes in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday demonstrate this fact. In their calculus, I would argue, Joe Biden was considered the candidate best able to assemble the kind of expansive election coalition that is capable of defeating Trump and regaining control of the Senate, while retaining a Democratic majority in the House. It looks like in the wake of Super Tuesday that they are right. In the coming weeks we will find out for sure.