Flawed assumptions

It seems like Putin’s order to invade Russia rested on some flawed assumptions of his and his underlings. The first – and the biggest – was an underestimation of the fighting morale and capacity of the Ukrainian people. Another was the depth and spread of a distinct Ukrainian nationality since 2014. Still another the reaction of the countries, comprising NATO. Instead of setting them once against another, as Putin anticipated, the invasion drew them together in common purpose to oppose Russian invasion. A fourth assumption was a misreading of how negatively the world would react to Russia’s invasion and war crimes. Finally, the level of resistence in Russia to the invasion, despite state organized repression of protesters and tight control of the media, was greater than anticipated.

Ketangi Brown-Jackson to Court

Some days the sun shines, social boundaries are crossed, and freedom and justice ring!

Peculiar

It’s peculiar that the peace movement in the US and Europe doesn’t call for the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory. From what I see, its main demands are a ceasefire, negotiations, and de-escalation. All well and good, but, by themselves, they don’t get to the heart of this bloody war – Russian troops on Ukrainian territory. Why is that?

Past is prologue

Under the pressure of the non-aggression pact, signed by Hitler and Stalin on August, 23, 1938, most of the communist movement, including the Communist Party, USA, kept its distance from the widening war between Hitler’s remilitarized Germany and other European states. With its signing, the military clash became overnight no more than a fight between imperialist states with no democratic or anti-fascist content in the eyes of the communists. In the U.S. Roosevelt, not Hitler, became the party’s target of criticism and vitriol. Much the same, albeit with different particulars, happened elsewhere. It was’t until June 22, 1941 when Hitler’s invaded of the first land of socialism did this policy change.

Overnight, the inter-imperialist conflict in the political imagination of the communists turned into an existential, all class fight for democracy and against fascism. In the U.S., it would be led in the U.S. by none other than FDR.

In today’s circumstances, I can see echoes of this mistaken policy once again insofar as the democratic, anti-imperialist content of the war between Russia and Ukraine shows up on a much lower register of the communist movement than the clash between NAT0 and Putin’s Russia. As is said, past is prologue to the future.

To a standstill

If Putin agrees to a ceasefire and a de-escalation, it seems obvious to me that three factors stand out in an explanation: one – and this is by far the most important – is the armed resistence of the Ukrainian army and people; another is the further congealing of a Ukrainian identity. People don’t die for a country unless their believe it’s theirs. The last is the provision of certain types of aid, especially military aid, to the freedom fighters by NATO.

NATO’s provision of military hardware to the war effort is a difficult needle to thread considering that it runs the danger of escalating the conflict miltarily and geographically. But so far it has been done judiciously by and large. In its absence it is hard to see how the Ukrainian army would have fought Russia’s army to a standstill. And in doing so give some hope that Putin won’t achieve his war aims and Ukraine will remain a sovereign and independent state.

That said, a diplomatic-peace offensive by the Biden administration is very much in order.

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