A comment of mine to someone else’s post. I hope you get the gist.
I hope you are right, that Trump’s days are numbered. I go back and forth as to Trump’s longevity in office. If he goes, its effects across the political landscape, would go beyond, in my view, an exchange of one bad cop for another and the triggering of an angry backlash from Trump’s base.
First, Pence is a nasty right winger to be sure. But his political pedigree isn’t identical with Trump’s. Pence’s traces back to the rise of Reagan and Reaganism, while Trump’s better fits the new kids on the bloc – the alt right. This latter association makes Trump uniquely dangerous, but what cranks up the danger meter to a much higher reading is his psychological makeup – his unpredictability, instability, and narcissism.
This toxic mix of extremist politics and a pronounced personality disorder makes Trump at once completely contemptuous of democratic governance and ready to take highly risky actions without serious consideration of their consequences to the country and world. It doesn’t take a flight of imagination to hear Trump repeating the words of the absolutist ruler of France Louis 14th, if he were familiar with them, who, so the story goes, exclaimed, “L’Etat c’est Moi,” (I am the State). Thus, a Trumpless White House would allow me anyway to breathe a little easier, while fully understanding all the while that we would still face major challenges and dangers from a Pence administration.
As for Trump’s core supporters, it is fair to think that many will become enraged by the sacking of their Boss, but it’s also not out of the question that some – maybe no more than a silver – will become demobilized, too much duplicity and stress for them. Much would depend on what Trump would do in reaction to his unceremonious dimissal. Meanwhile, new and significant rifts, almost inevitably, would open up in the GOP political coalition, as the alt right goes to war with the traditional right. And on our side of the ledger, it is reasonable to expect that the broader democratic coalition and the Democratic Party will gain momentum, energy, and confidence due to Trump’s ouster. Finally, I can’t help but think that all this and more would improve, among other things, our election prospects next year.