Here’s a case for some optimism as we look to the fall elections. If Covid loses some of its deadly and disruptive punch, if the hiccups in the supply chains dissipate, if inflation proves to be temporary and eases, if the Russian-Urkranian standoff finds some sort of resolution short of war, if a modest version of Build Back Better and a voting rights-election protection bill make their way through Congress, if the Biden administration makes no big mistakes, and if all this happens by the summer, even late summer, the election prospects of Democrats will break in a better direction than many analysts presently predict.

There’s a lot of “Ifs” here and events could break in another direction, but still the scenario above isn’t pure invention. It as likely as unlikely. It’s reasoned, not wishful thinking.

I should add though that the outcome of any election, even in the most propitious of circumstances, depends on the the energy and skills of both candidates and their supporters. Election victories aren’t served on a plate.